S&P 500 Overview: Quiet melt-up continues
- Volatility low as money shifts between sectors.
- Defeated at 2800, what can bears do now?
- At current pace, “golden cross” in seven sessions.
- Lyft, Uber, Pinterest IPOs will likely draw Main Street attention to stock market.
- Don’t forget about Apple (AAPL) event next Monday, March 25.
Several Big Stories in Big Companies
- Facebook (FB): Credibility gap widens again. Business model potentially in question after New Zealand incident.
- Boeing (BA): A once-bulletproof name facing potentially unquantifiable risk. Bearish triangle on chart.
- Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk’s star has lost its luster. Plus, potential threat from Kandi Technologies (KNDI).
- Deutsche Bank (DB): Potential relief for financial giant trading at 1/4 book value?
Energy on the Move as OPEC Falls into Line
- OPEC cancels April meeting, may extend cuts
- Russia united with Riyadh. Does Moscow have any reason to accommodate Trump amid Venezuela situation?
- Here come the frackers: EMES, SND, HCLP, CRR, CVIA, FRAC, NINE, CJ
- Servicers and drillers leading. Refiners and integrateds lagging.
- Domestics cutting back: Baker Hughes rig count at 11-month low.
Master Class Case Study: Kraft Heinz (KHC) Negative at S&P
- Bearish things can happen when a balance sheet goes bad.
- Credit is one of our seven catalysts taught at Master Class next week.
‘Nirvana Week’ for Volatility, Consumer Just ended
- Began with strong January retail sales, ended with strong March consumer sentiment.
- Government shutdown quickly forgotten, attention focuses on lower tier of income scale. Wage gains bullish over longer-term for both consumer sector and equities.
- Will take time for Powell to change tune, especially after recent pivot AND dovish central banks overseas.
- Fed balance sheet now in focus.
Russell’s Watch List:
- Netflix (NFLX) trying to break above recent range.
- Careful of rally in chips. NVDA/MLNX deal may have spurred knee-jerk buyers.
- Financials may have more upside based on economy, potential for oil bulls to steepen yield curve.
- DVA, RMD: Health-care names looking sickly as Buffett calls for overhaul.
- Match (MTCH), Splunk (SPLK) and Plural Sight (PS) coming off 50-day MAs.
- Television stocks, overbought now, getting interest into elections: GTN, SBGI, NXST. NYT similar. Pullbacks may draw buying.
- Aurora Cannabis (ACB) still 25% below $14 Cowen target price after Peltz joined team.
