{"id":65038,"date":"2025-08-25T02:00:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T07:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/?p=65038"},"modified":"2025-08-25T07:39:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T12:39:26","slug":"megacaps-lag-powell-dovish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2025\/08\/25\/megacaps-lag-powell-dovish\/","title":{"rendered":"Money Shifts from Megacaps as Powell Turns Dovish"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Investors are pivoting away from megacaps, positioning for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 just finished a strange move. The index declined for six straight sessions between Thursday, August 14, and Thursday, August 21, its longest losing streak of the year. It then erased all those losses in a single big rally on Friday, ending last week up 0.3 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell triggered the move with comments in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Downside risks to employment are rising,&#8221; he said at the annual symposium. &#8220;With policy in restrictive territory &#8230; the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,&#8221; toward lower interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>Reassured the central bank is more willing to support the economy, investors scrambled into stocks that could benefit. Many of them underperformed in the last year, resulting in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2025\/08\/14\/market-trends-august-14\/\">small value rotation<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Small caps: The Russell 2000 ended last week at its highest level since early December.<\/li>\n<li>Banks: The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index had a record weekly closing high. Lower rates can spur lending volumes and boost the value of balance sheet assets.<\/li>\n<li>Energy was the strongest sector last week. It&#8217;s economically sensitive and has the lowest earnings multiple of any major sector. Servicers like Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) were especially active.<\/li>\n<li>Real-estate investment trusts and homebuilders climbed because they have a natural sensitivity to borrowing costs.<\/li>\n<li>Solar energy: Another potential value play after four years of steady declines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<table class=\" alignright\" style=\"width: 42.4095%; border-collapse: collapse; height: 211px;\">\n<caption><strong>\u00a0Biggest Gainers in the S&amp;P 500 Last Week<\/strong><\/caption>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3688%;\">Dayforce (DAY)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.6312%;\">+31%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3688%;\">Paramount Skydance (PSKY)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.6312%;\">+17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3688%;\">EPAM Systems (EPAM)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.6312%;\">+11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3688%;\">LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.6312%;\">+10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3688%;\">Packaging Corp. of America (PKG)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.6312%;\">+10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3688%;\"><em>Source: TradeStation data<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.6312%;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Megacaps Struggle<\/h2>\n<p>All told, 82 percent of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s members rose last week. That&#8217;s a surprisingly large proportion given the index&#8217;s gain of just 0.3 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The reason is that megacap growth stocks struggled. TradeStation data showed that, of the nine companies worth at least $1 trillion, only three rose last week: Tesla (TSLA), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Alphabet (GOOGL).<\/p>\n<p>Other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/MSFT\/caSXgVlN-Is-the-AI-Trade-Done-for-Now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">major AI names fell<\/a>, including Broadcom (AVGO), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA). Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a smaller company closely associated with AI, had its biggest weekly drop since early April.<\/p>\n<p>OpenAI CEO Sam Altman may have prompted some of the selling by suggesting AI stocks were in a bubble. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Dell Technologies (DELL) and Oracle (ORCL) declined as well.<\/p>\n<p>The selling made technology the only sector to fall more than 1 percent last week. The Nasdaq-100 was also the only major index to close in the red.<\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, was the only major index to close at a new all-time high. That weakness in the Nasdaq and strength in the Dow additionally highlight last week&#8217;s shift from growth stocks to value stocks.<\/p>\n<h2>Weak Dollar<\/h2>\n<p>Powell&#8217;s dovish messaging also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/DXY\/X55h6pgC-More-Downside-in-the-Greenback\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">caused the U.S. dollar to lose value<\/a>\u00a0for the third straight week. That supported precious-metal plays like gold and silver miners, along with global stocks. China and Mexico were especially strong.<\/p>\n<table class=\" alignright\" style=\"width: 41.9197%; border-collapse: collapse; height: 105px;\">\n<caption><strong>\u00a0Biggest Decliners in the S&amp;P 500 Last Week<\/strong><\/caption>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.1963%;\">Palantir Technologies (PLTR)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.8037%;\">-10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.1963%;\">Intuit (INTU)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.8037%;\">-7.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.1963%;\">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.8037%;\">-5.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.1963%;\">Dell Technologies (DELL)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.8037%;\">-5.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.1963%;\">Oracle (ORCL)<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.8037%;\">-4.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 72.1963%;\"><em>Source: TradeStation data<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 27.8037%;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Dayforce (DAY) was the biggest gainer in the S&amp;P 500 last week after accepting a $12 billion takeover by Thoma Bravo. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) surged on optimism about profit-boosting job cuts after its recent merger.<\/p>\n<p>Analog Devices (ADI) didn&#8217;t make the top five, but it climbed 8.9 percent on strong quarterly results.<\/p>\n<p>Intuit (INTU), on the other hand, fell after beating estimates. A bigger issue could be that investors seem to be selling high-multiple software companies. (See this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2025\/08\/11\/apples-rally-nasdaq-record\/\">recent article<\/a> for more.)<\/p>\n<h2>Charting the Market<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 remains in an uptrend, with few apparently negative signals.<\/p>\n<p>Friday&#8217;s 1.5 percent rally was the biggest one-day gain since May 27. The bounce occurred at both the 21-day exponential moving average and a 50 percent retracement of the move between August 1 and August 15. Those signals potentially confirm the bullish direction.<\/p>\n<p>The Advance\/Decline (A\/D) line also made a new high, reflecting positive breadth.<\/p>\n<p>Cboe&#8217;s Volatility Index (VIX) ended last week at its lowest level since early December. That may indicate limited selling pressures.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_65054\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-65054\" class=\"wp-image-65054 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a-1024x490.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"490\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a-1024x490.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a-300x143.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a-768x367.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a-1536x734.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a-1080x516.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPY_20250822a.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-65054\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<h2>The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n<p>This week features earnings by the market&#8217;s biggest company, Nvidia (NVDA), and some noteworthy economic reports.<\/p>\n<p>New home sales are due this morning.<\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow brings durable-goods orders and consumer confidence. MongoDB (MDB) and Okta (OKTA) announce results in the afternoon.<\/p>\n<p>Crude-oil inventories are on Wednesday morning. NVDA reports in the postmarket, along with CrowdStrike (CRWD), HP (HPQ) and Snowflake (SNOW).<\/p>\n<p>Thursday features the first revision of last quarter&#8217;s gross domestic product (GDP), plus initial jobless claims. Best Buy (BBY), Dollar General (DG), DELL and Marvell Technology (MRVL) announce earnings.<\/p>\n<p>The big item on Friday is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report. Personal income and spending are also part of the report.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s followed by a three-day weekend because of Labor Day. Trading will resume on Tuesday, September 2.<\/p>\n<div class=\"et_pb_section et_pb_section_4_tb_body article-content et_section_regular\">\n<div class=\"et_pb_row et_pb_row_4_tb_body\">\n<div class=\"et_pb_column et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column_9_tb_body et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode_passthrough et-last-child\">\n<div class=\"et_pb_module et_pb_post_content et_pb_post_content_0_tb_body\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 41.3962%; height: 112px;\" border=\"1\">\n<caption><strong>Standardized Performances for ETFs mentioned above<\/strong><\/caption>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 42.0202%;\"><strong>ETF<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 17.1717%;\"><strong>1 Year<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 18.1818%;\"><strong>5 Years<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 21.2121%;\"><strong>10 Years<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 42.0202%;\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY)<\/td>\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 17.1717%;\">+14.75%<\/td>\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 18.1818%;\">+93.58%<\/td>\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 21.2121%;\">+200.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 24px; width: 98.5859%;\" colspan=\"4\"><em>As of July 31, 2025. Based on TradeStation data<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>Exchange Traded Funds (\u201cETFs\u201d) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/etf-disclosures\/\">Click here<\/a>\u00a0to find the prospectus.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors are pivoting away from megacaps, positioning for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":65043,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[103,13],"tags":[129,381,1325,1206,719,127,1196,1394,181,483,1395,1074,1393],"class_list":["post-65038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-in-review","category-stocks","tag-amd","tag-avgo","tag-day","tag-dell","tag-epam","tag-googl","tag-intu","tag-lyb","tag-nvda","tag-orcl","tag-pkg","tag-pltr","tag-psky","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Money Shifts from Megacaps as Powell Turns Dovish<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories \u2013 especially those overlooked by other commentators. 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