{"id":62673,"date":"2024-12-19T02:00:26","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T07:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/?p=62673"},"modified":"2024-12-19T13:18:30","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T18:18:30","slug":"market-trends-december-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/","title":{"rendered":"All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Downloads are available\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/MT-public-materials-Oct-2024b.zip\">here<\/a>.\u00a0TradeStation\u2019s ideas on TradingView are available\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/broker\/TradeStation\/ideas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Check out our next \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/streamyard.com\/watch\/xyPqWmVBKHxZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">State of the Market<\/a>,\u201d on Monday, 1\/16.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sizing Up the S&amp;P 500<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>S&amp;P 500 falls the most since 8\/5, hits low of month<\/li>\n<li>Prices under 8-, 21-day EMAs, 50-day MA after bearish outside day<\/li>\n<li>Index swings 203 points (most since June 2020), following small range last week.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>(3.5% on percentage basis, most since November 2022.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>MACD falling\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Does Wilder&#8217;s RSI need to go oversold after 15 months?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Potential support at mid-November low of 5853<\/li>\n<li>DJIA down for 10 straight sessions, longest decline since 1974.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yesterday&#8217;s reversal was biggest candle (1389 points) since October 2022.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Key tech charts:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remains in triangle pattern.<\/li>\n<li>Tech sector fails to hold recent breakout<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Intermarket perils:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>10-year Treasury yield highest close since 5\/31<\/li>\n<li>U.S. dollar index closes at 25-month high<\/li>\n<li>VIX climbs after bottoming above 12<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_62705\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-62705\" class=\"wp-image-62705 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218-1024x494.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218-1024x494.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218-300x145.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218-768x370.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218-1536x741.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218-1080x521.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/SPX_20241218.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-62705\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>S&amp;P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<h2>10-Year Treasury Yield<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/DXY\/cS7YMLgv-Focus-Shifts-to-Greenback-and-the-10-year-Treasury\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10-year Treasury yield index<\/a> ($TNX.X) challenges November high, falling trendline.\n<ul>\n<li>Actual yield is about 15bp above 2-year yield. Historical norms closer to 100 basis points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Treasury auctions, deficit news could gain importance in New Year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Fed Gets Hawkish<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Cuts 25bp as expected<\/li>\n<li>Dot plot for 2025: Goes from 100bp of cuts to 50bp of cuts<\/li>\n<li>PCE estimate for 2025: Goes from 2.1% to 2.5%<\/li>\n<li>Powell: &#8220;Once again, we&#8217;ve had a year-end projection for inflation and it&#8217;s kind of fallen apart as we approach the end of the year. Inflation has once again underperformed relative to expectations.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Using the Platform<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/18\/breadth-calculated-indexes\/\">Breadth tools platform guide<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Earnings this afternoon: FDX NKE<\/li>\n<li>Fri 12\/20: PCE<\/li>\n<li>Tue 12\/24: Durable goods orders, new home sales. <strong><em>**Market close at 1pm ET**<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Wed 12\/25: Merry Christmas! (Market Closed)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Downloads are available\u00a0here.\u00a0TradeStation\u2019s ideas on TradingView are available\u00a0here. Check out our next \u201cState of the Market,\u201d on Monday, 1\/16. Sizing Up the S&amp;P 500 S&amp;P 500 falls the most since 8\/5, hits low of month Prices under 8-, 21-day EMAs, 50-day MA after bearish outside day Index swings 203 points (most since June 2020), following [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":62622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1276,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-trends","category-stocks","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield | Market Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield | Market Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Downloads are available\u00a0here.\u00a0TradeStation\u2019s ideas on TradingView are available\u00a0here. Check out our next \u201cState of the Market,\u201d on Monday, 1\/16. Sizing Up the S&amp;P 500 S&amp;P 500 falls the most since 8\/5, hits low of month Prices under 8-, 21-day EMAs, 50-day MA after bearish outside day Index swings 203 points (most since June 2020), following [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Market Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TradeStation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-19T07:00:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-12-19T18:18:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/TS-MI-Market-Trends-1080x675-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Russell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@TradeStation\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@TradeStation\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Russell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/\",\"name\":\"All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield | Market Insights\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/TS-MI-Market-Trends-1080x675-1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-19T07:00:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-19T18:18:30+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/#\/schema\/person\/d2279ba57f90e3b47887f2503ce142d4\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/TS-MI-Market-Trends-1080x675-1.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cdn.tradestation.com\/uploads\/sites\/2\/TS-MI-Market-Trends-1080x675-1.jpg\",\"width\":1080,\"height\":675},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/2024\/12\/19\/market-trends-december-19\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/\",\"name\":\"Market Insights\",\"description\":\"Fresh market commentary and actionable trade ideas.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/#\/schema\/person\/d2279ba57f90e3b47887f2503ce142d4\",\"name\":\"David Russell\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.tradestation.com\/insights\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/443bdca82f0006231c5179581e4310ed?s=96&d=mm&r=pg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/443bdca82f0006231c5179581e4310ed?s=96&d=mm&r=pg\",\"caption\":\"David Russell\"},\"description\":\"David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. 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