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S&P 500 Overview: Direction Uncertain
- No signs of new leadership groups/bullish narrative. However, extreme bearish consensus could reverse.
- Political backdrop risky amid G-20, Brexit uncertainty, Mexico uncertainty.
- Pro-business Republicans marginalized by Trump/Democrats.
- Periodicity bearish amid second losing month, worst quarter since 2011.
- S&P 500 at risk below 2700 and broken trend line. Also 2815 double-top.
- Nasdaq-100 below 7,000.
- This week may have sideways consolidation, with danger of breaking October lows. Events in focus.
Big Week for Event Risk
- Wednesday pre-market: GDP revision.
- Wednesday midday: Powell addresses Economic Club of New York.
- Friday: G-20 meeting begins in Buenos Aires, finishes over weekend.
- Mexico border crisis starting to impact markets.
- But, next week brings ASH biotech conference.
Economic Data Clearly Weakens:
- Today: Japan Nov factory PMI hits 2-year low.
- Today: German Nov Ifo misses as outlook sours
- 11/23: November Euro Zone factory PMI lowest since Dec 2014.
- 11/23: German GDP has 1st sequential contraction since Q1 of 2015.
- 11/21: October durable goods miss badly as business investment slows.
- 11/21: U.S. jobless claims rise more than expected to highest level since June.
- 11/21: Weekly rail traffic lowest since January
- 11/21: Consumer sentiment revised down, with stock market apparently weighing on higher-income respondents.
Pratl’s Watch List:
- Salesforce.com (CRM) reports Tuesday night.
- J.M. Smucker (SJM) reports Wednesday, 11/28, pre-market.
- Burlington Stores (BURL) reports Wednesday, 11/28, pre-market.
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) reports Wednesday, 11/28, pre-market.
- Big Lots (BIG) reports Friday, 11/30, pre-market.
Russell’s Watch List:
- WMT holding support around $94.
- NEE, AMT: Boring stocks that have outperformed, have little global risk.
- ETSY, DECK: Under-the-radar strong names in retail. JWN may fill gap.
- AAPL potential hammer today.
- @CL may get talked higher into OPEC meeting on Dec. 6.
