Potential Breakout in Oil


Energy had rough start to the year, but bullish things may be happening in the futures market.

WTI Crude Oil Contracts (@CL on TradeStation) appear to have broken out of a triangle that’s formed over the last three weeks. They’re also trying to move back above their 50-day moving average. Some trend followers may consider a sign that the uptrend beginning last summer hasn’t finished yet.

The move comes amid an apparent shift in sentiment. Before, traders worried that record U.S. production would swamp global markets. Now, they’re more concerned potential sanctions against Iran and Venezuela will squeeze supplies.1 OPEC and the Saudis also seem firmly committed to reducing global inventories.2 That’s a big change from earlier years, when members of the oil cartel cheated on their pledges to cut production.

WTI Futures (@CL)

Energy stocks are outperforming today, but remain the worst major sector on a year-to-date basis. However, there have been signs of rotation in the broader market recently with money potentially shifting away from technology. See yesterday’s summary of Morning Market Briefing for more.

The next scheduled event that could impact the sector is the Energy Department’s inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET.

1. CNBC: Trump’s decision to fire Tillerson spawns bullish case for oil, RBC’s Helima Croft says. 3/14/18

2. Oilprice.com: OPEC Doubles Down On Draining Oil Inventories. 3/19/18.

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David Russell is VP of Market Intelligence at TradeStation Group. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.