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Test Your Trading System On Seen and Unseen Data
Many trading systems fail in the real world because they are built and tested on the same set of historical data.
TradeStation's new Walk Forward Optimizer aids in the mitigation of this problem by performing a set of "walk-forward" performance tests against as-yet-unseen market data, thereby simulating the unpredictability of trading a strategy under real market conditions.
Starting where other optimizing methods typically end, the Walk-Forward Optimizer produces an easy-to-understand, pass-fail analysis of a strategy's key performance criteria.
Rolling Walk-Forward Analysis
In this example, the strategy is optimized on four months of price history and a walk forward analysis is done on eight months of unseen, out-of-sample data, thereby producing a realistic assessment of how well the strategy may perform under actual market conditions.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options futures or forex); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. Please click here to view the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on our Other Information page. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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